Q1 2026 | January - March | With Historical Trends 2020-2026
Sibabalwe Samora Dakana
Managing Director & Principal Debt Counsellor
Published: 1 April 2026
Key findings from NDRC's debt review portfolio (March 2020 - March 2026)
The average DTI ratio for consumers entering debt review fell to 39.3% in Q1 2026, down from 45.5% in Q4 2025, a 6.2 percentage point reduction. SARB rate cuts from late 2025 continued to filter through to household budgets during Q1, reducing debt servicing costs at programme entry across all age bands.
Unsecured credit now accounts for 59% of the portfolio, reversing the 54:46 secured-to-unsecured split from Q4 2025. "Other Credit" (payday lenders, short-term facilities, and micro-loans) rose from 24% to 35.5%, making it the largest single debt category.
The NCR Debt Help System (DHS) went offline in February 2026 (Circular 01/2026), causing processing backlogs industry-wide. The CBA clearance certificate portal remained operational throughout, allowing F1/F2 filings to continue. A staggered DHS update schedule (Circular 003/2026) partially restored access but continued to delay administrative workflows through March.
Interest rate reductions on unsecured credit averaged 14.6 percentage points, up from 12pp in Q4 2025. The completion rate reached 31.3%.
These gains face immediate headwinds entering Q2. The Iran-linked oil shock triggered a record fuel price increase on 1 April (petrol up R5.82/litre), Eskom tariffs rose 8.76%, and SARB held rates twice during Q1, citing geopolitical risk. This "triple shock" of fuel, electricity, and stalled rate relief is likely to reverse DTI improvements unless monetary policy shifts.
Avg Debt-to-Income Ratio
Down 6.2pp from Q4 2025
Successfully Restructured
Up 2pp from Q4 2025
Active & Paying
In distribution with regular payments
Unsecured Credit
Was 46% in Q4 2025
Peak Risk Age Band
39.4% of consumers in this age cohort
Unsecured Rate Reduction
Up from 12pp in Q4 2025
This report is based on NDRC-managed matters across South Africa. It does not represent NCR-wide data, but provides national insights through real case analysis, consistent with industry standard reporting practices.
All data is anonymised and aggregated. No personally identifiable information is disclosed. This report complies with the Protection of Personal Information Act (POPIA).
External pressures shaping household debt dynamics during and after Q1 2026
From 1 April: 95 petrol up R5.82/litre (inland to R26.12), diesel up R10+/litre, paraffin up R11.63/litre. The largest fuel increase in South African history, triggered by the Iran-linked oil supply disruption.
Effective 1 April 2026. Nearly triple the current inflation rate of 3.5%. Combined with the fuel hike, economists described this as a "triple shock" to household budgets.
The Strait of Hormuz closure caused "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" (IEA). SARB cited this conflict directly when holding rates at 6.75% in March.
29 January: held at 6.75% (4-2 split, two members wanted a cut). 26 March: held unanimously, citing Iran war and inflation risk. No rate relief despite headline inflation at 3.0%.
Nestle SA retrenched 400+ workers in March (part of 16,000 global cuts). National Treasury warned that "weak household finances and slow growth threaten fiscal sustainability," noting costs have outpaced income growth for a decade.
Analysis of consumer income distribution and debt-to-income stress levels
Net monthly income of consumers entering debt review
Financial profile: Q1 2026 vs Q4 2025
Key Insight: DTI fell 6.2pp to 39.3%. The R10k-R20k band accounts for 39.5% of applicants.
Breakdown of debt types held by consumers entering debt review
Secured debt (backed by assets) vs unsecured credit exposure
Home Loans, Vehicle Finance
Other Credit, Personal Loans, Credit Card, Retail Credit
Debt mix shift from 2020 to Q4 2025
Unsecured debt accounts for 59% of the portfolio.
Full portfolio (2020-2025)
Portfolio breakdown
| Debt Type | % of Total Debt |
|---|---|
Other Credit | 30% |
Home Loans | 28% |
Vehicle Finance | 17% |
Personal Loans | 17% |
Credit Card | 6% |
Retail Credit | 2% |
15.5%
Vehicle finance accounts for 15.5% of total debt. Unlike unsecured credit, vehicle instalments cannot be reduced during restructuring. Only the interest rate and term can be adjusted. Repossession directly affects employment mobility.
6.2%
of total debt
Short-term loans make up 10.5% of unsecured debt. These products typically carry interest rates above 60% per annum.
High-cost short-term credit is overrepresented in the unsecured exposure, pointing to severe cash-flow pressure before consumers enter debt review.
How debt restructuring reduces interest rates and repayment periods
Average interest rates before and after debt restructuring
Average duration of the debt review journey
Application
Distribution
Completion
694 days
(approx. 23 months) average time to successful completion
Average Completion Time
694 days (approx. 23 months)
Active Client Duration
912 days
(~30 months for ongoing matters)
Restructuring Impact
Unsecured interest rates dropped from 22.3% to 7.7%, a 14.6pp reduction. Average time to completion: 23 months.
NCR-registered status distribution across the managed portfolio
Completed
In Distribution
Suspended
Cancelled
Other
Breakdown by registered status codes per National Credit Act requirements. Status codes referenced in this report reflect the NCR DHS numeric coding framework.
| Code | Status Description | Category | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
03 | Completed | Completed | 31.3% |
02 | In Distribution | In Progress | 9.8% |
07 | Suspended | Exited | 32.1% |
06 | Cancelled | Exited | 24.3% |
04 | Other | Pending | 2.5% |
Visual breakdown of outcomes across the portfolio
41.1% of matters conclude through court-approved restructuring or full settlement, a lawful alternative to sequestration under the NCA.
The remaining 56.4% exit through lawful removal where consumers' financial positions improved or they were found not to be over-indebted. These exits are envisaged by the NCA.
Data sourced from National Credit Regulator (NCR) status code registry. Status codes defined per National Credit Act (NCA) requirements.
Age, gender, and marital status profile of debt review clients
Percentage of clients by age group
Demographic breakdown of debt review clients
53.5%
Male
46.5%
Female
Note: The 36-45 age band remains the largest cohort at 39.4%.
Debt-to-Income ratios correlated with consumer lifecycle stages
Average Debt-to-Income (DTI) ratio per age cohort. Higher values indicate greater financial stress
DTI Ratio
0.9% of clients
Entry-level earners with limited credit history and low debt levels, but vulnerable to income shocks.
DTI Ratio
29.1% of clients
Family formation phase with first home purchases, vehicle finance, and growing household obligations.
DTI Ratio
39.4% of clients
Peak financial pressure from education costs, mortgage payments, and extended family obligations.
DTI Ratio
19.3% of clients
Debt consolidation phase; some obligations reducing but legacy debt from earlier years persists.
DTI Ratio
11.3% of clients
Pre-retirement and retirement phase with fixed income constraints and residual legacy debt.
The 36-45 cohort carries the highest DTI at 40.1% and makes up 39.4% of the portfolio. This age group typically holds the most concurrent obligations: mortgages, vehicle finance, and education costs.
Average DTI across all bands: 39.3%. The 40% threshold is generally considered the upper limit of sustainable debt servicing.
Methodology: Age is derived from RSA ID numbers; DTI ratios are calculated from Finwise budget data (total debt repayments ÷ total income). Risk thresholds: Low (<40%), Moderate (40-60%), High (60-80%), Critical (>80%).
DTI fell from 45.5% to 39.3%, the largest quarterly drop on record. Lower SARB rates reduced debt servicing costs at programme entry. Every age cohort recorded lower DTI ratios, with the 56+ band improving by 8.4pp.
The secured-to-unsecured split moved from 54:46 to 41:59. "Other Credit" rose from 24% to 35.5%, overtaking home loans as the largest category. This shift towards high-cost, short-term credit warrants NCR attention.
The DHS went offline in February (Circular 01/2026) and operated on a staggered schedule (Circular 003/2026) for the remainder of Q1. Status updates and application processing were delayed across the industry. The CBA clearance certificate portal was unaffected and continued accepting F1/F2 filings throughout the DHS downtime.
Unsecured interest rate reductions increased from 12pp to 14.6pp. The completion rate reached 31.3%.
Unregistered entities continued to misrepresent debt review processes during Q1. Enforcement against misleading practices and reckless lending must be prioritised by the NCR.
The record fuel price hike (petrol up R5.82/litre from 1 April), an 8.76% Eskom tariff increase, and SARB's decision to hold rates at 6.75% through Q1 create a "triple shock" entering Q2. Transport and energy costs will erode disposable income directly. Unless SARB cuts rates at the May MPC meeting, the DTI improvements recorded in Q1 are unlikely to hold, particularly for consumers in the R10k-R20k income band where these costs consume the largest share of household budgets.
This report is based on anonymised data derived from debt review and debt review removal matters managed by The National Debt Review Center across South Africa. The data reflects operational outcomes within the NDRC client base and is not presented as a comprehensive reflection of all debt review matters nationally.
Percentages, averages, and timeframes reflect observed patterns within the reporting period and may vary depending on creditor behaviour, court scheduling, and consumer compliance. Where approximations are used, they are clearly indicated and applied conservatively.
The National Debt Review Center is a registered debt counselling practice operating in terms of the National Credit Act. All observations are presented for educational and policy discussion purposes and do not constitute legal advice.